How it works
Signal
A development appears in government data, commodity series, weather models, filings or reporting.
Verification
Source reliability and independent corroboration. Five articles repeating one report count once.
Local exposure
Does your region depend on the affected system — this fuel market, grid, corridor or growing area?
Household exposure
Your Resilience Twin: water source, heating, generator, commute, pantry, medications, pets.
Probability
A range, not false precision. Event confidence stays separate from impact probability.
Severity
How much would this actually change daily life if it happens?
Time horizon
Immediate 0–72h, near term 3–14 days, medium 2–8 weeks, longer 2+ months.
Action
Monitor, prepare or act — plus what not to do, and why this is not yet a crisis.
Principles we hold to
Price risk ≠ availability risk
Gasoline can carry high price risk and low shortage risk at the same time. We always show both.
Meaningful change only
75% → 77% with no change in severity, exposure or recommendation is not an alert. 52–65% → 75–90% with a recommendation change is.
Low-regret actions
We prefer actions that remain useful if nothing happens: food you already eat, a refill that was due, half a tank, charged batteries.
Confidence is not probability
Confidence describes evidence quality and source independence. Probability describes the outcome.
Quiet is a result
When the environment is stable we say so. Telling you to do nothing is part of the product.
We don't know yet
Where evidence is incomplete we say that instead of inventing a number.
Where the data comes from
Tier 1 — authoritative
EIA, NOAA/NWS, USDA, BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve, FEMA, DHS, state agencies, utilities, SEC EDGAR, investor relations.
Tier 2 — professional
Major reputable news organisations, industry associations, commodity data, freight indices.
Tier 3 — signal
Social media, community reports, user submissions. Never enough on their own for a high-confidence alert.
These integrations are not connected yet. Everything in the product today is clearly labelled demonstration intelligence sitting on the same structures the live sources will fill.